September 14, 2004

Electoral College Cartogram

I'm amazed no one's done this before, but Votemaster at Electoral-Vote.com has produced a cartogram showing states proportioned to correspond with electoral college votes. Here's the map for September 14.

According to Votemaster, Bush is currently leading with 291 forecasted votes, versus 238 for Kerry - 270 are needed to win. As you can see, Kerry has rock-solid support in three critical states (New York, California and Illinois), whereas Bush's continuing weakness in Pennsylvania and Florida remains a big risk to his re-election. As things stand now, Bush losing Pennsylvania would nearly tie it up; losing Florida (or both) would put Kerry in the White House.

It's not looking good for Kerry, but it's definitely not over.

Posted by Sterling at 05:44 PM GMT
Comments
#1

If Kerry gets in with fewer votes than Bush, we'll call it even.

Posted by: Stefan Geens on September 14, 2004 05:57 PM
#2

Akshly, both the NYT and the WSJ have pretty nifty interactive maps. The Timesís, in particular, allows you to look at the results of various elections going back to WW2 in which all our assumptions are reversed; California is GOP haven and the rural south a Dem sweep. Also, one of these maps takes issue with your characterization of Penn. It has Bush barely ahead, but Kerry cratering from what was a pretty hefty lead earlier in the year. Same with Ohio.

Posted by: Matthew on September 14, 2004 06:16 PM
#3

Yeah, I was going to mention the Bush revolution in Ohio, but decided I didn't need to. As for Pennsy, yes, but there are limits to how well a Republican can do there. I'm not sure it's possible for Bush to get more than 51% or so of that vote - so we're just going to have to clench our jaws and run through it.

Posted by: Sterling on September 14, 2004 07:14 PM
#4

Me, I just hate it when people misspell the past participle of "to forecast".

Posted by: Stefan Geens on September 14, 2004 08:24 PM
#5

It took you two hours to come up with that?

Posted by: Sterling on September 14, 2004 08:41 PM
#6

chris bowers (from mydd.com) has my favorite proportional map of the electoral college. its the graphic on the left of his page, but i think the direct URL is http://www.mydd.com/popup.html

you can toggle states on or off to see what the effect would be of, say, gaining FL or losing OH

Posted by: jb in nyc on September 15, 2004 07:08 PM
#7

Sorry to burst your bubble, but you shouldn't be "amazed" that no one has put together a cartogram before, because plenty of people have done this.

Sara Fabrikant has some from the 2000 election & 2004:

http://www.geog.ucsb.edu/%7Esara/html/mapping/election/election04/election.html

Posted by: Lorn on November 5, 2004 06:26 PM