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Nick Denton, November 2:
Calling the election for Kerry · Major media is in an increasingly untenable position. The exit polls are indicating Kerry is now the favorite. The numbers are leaking out through every orifice. For the latest numbers, see Wonkette. On Tradesports, Bush has gone from 53% likely to win re-election, as of 2pm, to 30% as I write, at 5.20 EST. And the headlines? Long lines greet voters, says CNN. Heavy turnout at the polls, according to Fox. In an internet era, it's impossible to maintain an information embargo, particularly when attention is so intense. The news organizations put up bland holding headlines, so as not to affect polling while stations are still open. This is the last election cycle they'll be so restrained. This embargo has gone beyond responsible journalism; it's verging on Luddism. But, hey, guys: thanks for making the internet look good.
Nick Denton, a bit later on November 2:
And we project... · Based on the early calls by the networks, and the exit polls, this is the way it's going: 299 to Kerry; 222 to Bush, with Nevada, Iowa and New Mexico tied.
Nick Denton, later still on November 2:
Those exit polls were pretty dodgy, weren't they?
Choire Sicha, November 4:
At every opportunity, most bloggers made disclaimers about the meaningless ness (or, at least, the unknown meaning) of the numbers found in exit polls. (Drudge didn't, as I recall.) Many linked to explanations and debunkings, such as the ones by Mystery Pollster. At no time did any weblog that I read make a "call" for Kerry based on these numbers. The numbers were described as being very favorable to Kerry, which they were -- and then were usually disclaimed.
Yes, folks, Nick is Choire's boss.
So are you complaining about Nick's utter misreading of the situation or that Choire obviously doesn't read Nick's blog? Or are you suggesting something darker?
If Choire knew Nick had called the election, he would not have hesitated to point it out. Choire was in high dudgeon mode in that post, and I don't think he gets that way quickly or easily. I've only met Choire a few times but I think he's an unusually straightforward person.
Nick, in turn, strikes me as very appearance-driven and he would not want it to seem that he was hiding his own flawed interpretation and expectations. He doesn't even hide Kinja's unimpressive traffic numbers, despite the very large investment he made in developing the site and embarrassment its poor showing must cause him.
Posted by: Sterling on November 4, 2004 11:35 PMWell, I haven't talked to either Nick or Choire about this. If I cared about it, and/or if it was important, I would. I have nothing against either Nick or Choire: they're both lovely guys and great bloggers. But the blogosphere exists to call bullshit on earnest posts like Choire's, especially when they're so very wrong.
Plus, I don't believe that Choire didn't see Nick's post. For one thing, Choire uses a newsreader, and even if he didn't open Nick's story, the *headline* was "Calling the election for Kerry".
Posted by: Felix on November 5, 2004 06:57 AMThe one question I haven't seen addressed is whether the numbers AMC was posting were in fact real VNS (or whatever it's now called) data, or whether someone was in fact planting bad info.
But to me, a 2PM exit poll carries an implicit caveat lector. I'm not too concerned whether people sprinkle enough qualifiers around it.
Posted by: Eliot on November 5, 2004 07:36 AMthey were wrong because the gop stole the election again
Posted by: fu on November 5, 2004 06:18 PMFranklin county is a Democrat county. It's the county Columbus sits in. If the GOP was going to tamper with voting machines, Franklin would be one of the last counties they'd have tried it. Kerry won Franklin County by 20,000 votes - an 8% margin. Your argument is with the local board of elections, which has both Democrat and GOP members.
Posted by: Sterling on November 5, 2004 07:41 PMLet me forestall Sterling here and point out to our mysterious FU (who seems quite the foo') that the 1100 people (mentioned in the USA Today article) having difficulty voting out of a voting population of 120 million is not exactly a stolen election.
Posted by: mike on November 5, 2004 10:24 PM