Dear no more

Several news organizations have run a story today about how North Korea's Kim Jong-il is downplaying his cult of personality. The official media apparently are no longer referring to him as "Dear Leader".

Most Koreans, however, never refer to Kim as "Dear Leader", a sobriquet reserved for only the most public occasions. Rather he is generally referred to simply as "the General", so any such 'downgrade' of his titles is something that may not be relevant to North Koreans. The foreign media may be getting excited over nothing. Even if this does signify a change in Pyongyang politics, it may not necessarily mean bad news for Kim Jong-il.

Observers frequently note the cult of personality, but I think they sometimes misunderstand it, because it's not strictly one revolving around Kim Jong-il. Ever since his father Il-sung - the "Great Leader" - died in 1994, Jong-il has maintained power by memoralizing his father. In effect, Il-sung is the "eternal President" whose spirit still reigns. Korea is the most Confucian society in Asia (and by that I mean both Koreas) and the idea of filial piety is very strong. Kim Jong-il has cemented his power by humbly deferring to his father, first while Dad was alive, and immediately after his death. So it is nothing new that the focus of official worship is not on Jong-il, but on his father.

Since then Jong-il has tried to shift the cult of personality onto himself, but obviously without much success. This is in part because under Kim Il-sung, North Korea seemed to be going places; today, Korea is an underfed gulag, and just about everyone there knows it.

No one can tell whether this observed downplaying of Kim Jong-il's role is indeed a political climbdown of some kind. Certainly if everyone is removing his picture from their walls - and every room must have pictures of both father and son - then this could be significant. It could indicate some political tussle beneath the surface.

There are signs of change in North Korea, although observers disagree about their extent. The government has begun liberalizing agricultural markets, and allowed the circulation of euros as hard currency. Economic hardship is leading to an exodus of refugees into China. If people are removing pictures of Kim Jong-il, it could mean people are fed up with him, and no longer fear signifying this by removing his picture. But I'm skeptical about this - there's still a police state, and it doens't have a sense of humor.

Or it could mean Kim Jong-il has ordered this to be done himself, because he's now going back to the strategy he employed in the wake of his father's death, which is to portray himself as the humble executioner of the Great Leader's vision.

This looks like a defensive tack, if I'm right. It could be against members of the military, some of whom may favor a less confrontational stance toward the US and the South. It could be against hardliners who reject any cooperation with the South or any economic opening. It could be against scheming family members, or to make a point to his various children considering succession. And the last unknown is whether this retrenchment, this return to putting the focus on Kim Il-sung, is a desperate move, or a wiley one. Kim Jong-il is a pragmatic man. This could bolster his position for years to come.