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I thought China was the leader when it comes to aggressive growth and mega projects. But in my experience it has been pipped by Dubai (admittedly an apples to oranges comparison), the most dynamic city in the United Arab Emirates and probably in the Persian Gulf region - and indeed in the Middle East. The amount of construction I saw on a recent visit is breathtaking, as is the grandiose vision of the Maktoum family which runs the place. Still, one must wonder: with all of these gleaming towers going up in the middle of a desert, is this a durable achievement, or an Ozymandian folly?
Dubai's strategy has been clever. In the early 1980s it founded Emirates Air, and used its high quality to attract long-haul passengers. The key was getting traffic in and out of Dubai. In 1990 it opened a new airport full of shopping, and since then has been coming up with ways to get more people to pass in and out: fancy, spacious hotels; amusement parks; horse races; and lots of big, modern shopping malls.
Driving from one bit of glass city across good highways to others, the very ephemeral and unfinished nature of the place is obvious. The skyscrapers - many in the funky sci-fi mould - are surrounded by desert. Car lots, walking paths in the middle of developed areas are sand. They really have simply built these massive buildings in the middle of desert wildnerness; the place could do with a bit of filling in.
Big posters and banners mark out extravagent projects: here will be the world's biggest skyscraper; there will be the world's biggest Formula One racetrack; here a new residential area; there a new shopping mall, complete with indoor ski slopes. Meanwhile the sheikh's ministers, who grew up in tents, have moved into palatial gated homes, little green oases surrounded by sand.
Obviously Dubai and the UAE in general benefits from oil, and with Brent crude at $60 a barrel, the money will keep coming. The ruling family recognizes, however, that it needs to diversify in order to provide jobs and security to its people, and to become more than just a tribe with a flag and an oil well - particularly if these little Gulf principalities are to command their own destiny, sandwiched between the stifling House of Saud and Shiite Iran across the Gulf. Dubai is already the region's leading port, and it is making rapid advances into finance. Its tax-free status and luxury residential projects like the Palms (a palm-tree shaped extension of reclaimed land - David Beckham and George Bush Senior are residents) are attracting global high fliers, along with super-delux hotels such as the Burj al Arab, where Mabel and I spent two nights (as a gift - it's way out of our budget).
And yet, is this megalomania, bound to sink into the sands once the rich and famous tire of it, or oil prices sag, or the whole property market simply implodes? During my stay I was pretty skeptical. You can't just will a massive 21st-century city into being, even if you are rich, and expect it to last.
But I changed my mind just as we were leaving. The airport was absolute chaos. We were waiting for a flight on Emirates for Cairo. The lines were ridiculous, full of Egyptian families pushing enormous carts heaped with purchases. I'm not exagerating when I say each family's pile of packages and boxes was higher than our heads. By the time Mabes and I finally pulled up to the check-in counter, the attendent looked as though she might explode. She noted our pair of small, roller suitcases with relief.
I made some small talk with her as she prepared our boarding passes. Busy day?
"Every day is the same. Bombay, Karachi, Cairo, Alexandria - all full, every day."
The lesson was reiterated in Cairo - a huge city of 15 million or so, and not an Ikea in sight. That's why Dubai will work. Because there are huge, urbanized middle classes growing in India, Egypt, and many countries stretching from Africa through to Southeast Asia, and they want to buy nice things for their homes and wardrobe - things they can't get at home. With nice hotels and other attractions like racing or trips into the sand dunes, layovers or shopping expeditions become longer stays. And with Western Europe and America increasingly difficult and uncomfortable destinations for Muslims, Dubai is welcoming.
Perhaps the best thing about Dubai is that it is a good role model. Liberalism in economics is matched with cosmopolitanism. Saudis can escape to Dubai's bars and nightclubs for a drink and a little companionship. Women can wear whatever they like. The shops are staffed by Arabs, Indians, Filippinos, Europeans - you really have no idea who you're going to be talking to, although you can be pretty sure the conversation will be in English. I like to wonder what, for example, visitors from Saudi think when they step into a taxi at the airport, and their cabbie is a woman.
I think you're spot on about the example that it sets to the region. Isn't Qatar also up to something similar? And Kuwait. The only problem is that people might think the quality of life comes from the oil, not the openness, or that liberalism is a luxury you can afford once you're rich, instead of seeing it as a way to wealth. In both cases, the sentiment is even partly true. And UAE is not a democracy by western standards, is it? More like enlightened despotism.
From a sci-fi perspective, I think places like Dubai are fascinating and inspiring, because they do in a way foretell of futures on Mars and further afield, where inhospitable land is converted to living space through sheer force of technological will.
Posted by: Stefan on July 14, 2005 05:35 AMDubai is not alone in advancing openness. Qatar, as you note, also has a benign despot who helped set up Al Jazeera, which often reports things that many rulers in Arab-speaking countries find uncomfortable. The station does, however, avoid dealing with Qatari issues, just as the newspapers I saw in Dubai are unlikely to criticize Sheikh Mohammed. I've read that Kuwait is also more open, but I think that is in contrast to Saddamite Iraq and Wahabbist Arabia.
Although oil money makes Dubai possible, I don't think people believe that their city would exist without the liberal policies. Saudi Arabia has oil but is nothing like Dubai or the other Gulf principalities.
Enlightened despotism is correct. These are not democracies. Perhaps the openness is attributable in part to the fact that the UAE, a rather recent concept, is comprised of seven quasi-independent emirates. Dubai is the most liberal, while others are quite conservative, but no one prince can manhandle the others. Sort of a Magna Carta-type set up.
Another reason for the openness is that the Maktoums recognize that in a globalized world they need to diversify: look at Saudi, which has lots of oil, but also lots of poverty, because there's little else. And it's because the Gulf principalities need to build their own identities if they want to set their own destiny, otherwise they risk being absorbed by Saudi Arabia - a large neighbor that resents their existence.
But I don't see any of them becoming liberal democracies. The closest proximation to Dubai in my experience is Singapore, which is as close to a family operation as an island of 4 million people can be. Dubai shares Singapore's artificial, Disneyland feel. I suspect that while an expat can lead an enjoyable and pampered life in Dubai, it's probably a bit dull and antiseptic. Dubai is liberal only in the context of the region. But compared to the totalitarianism of Saudi Arabia, it must seem like a beacon of light (or hedonism).